![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/graph-A-dinamica-macroeconomica-tributaria-e-populacional-en-1024x488.jpg\")
<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nAs the graph shows, when deducting taxation from the GDP value, the financial value that citizens have access to \u2013 the difference is collected in the form of taxes \u2013, and which directly interferes with their quality of life, is stagnant in a narrow range since the beginning of the 1980s. In other words, it is the same financial value that the population had access to 30 years ago.<\/p>\r\n
Another aggravating factor is the fact that the population grew during this period, along with the tax burden, not allowing the amount available to citizens to grow at the same rate. By subtracting the financial amount of taxes from the GDP value and dividing the result by the number of inhabitants in the country, it is observed that the per capita value is falling in relation to the 1980s and 1990s, meaning that the country\u2019s people have the same capital available to a 30% larger population. This would be the situation, for example, of a family made up of three people who have to support a fourth person, without growth contributing this forth person in any way and with no prospects for growth in the family budget.<\/p>\r\n
This means that, although GDP has grown in recent years, the population and tax burden have increased faster, meaning that citizens have access to fewer financial resources than 30 years ago, generating stagnation in access to capital in relation to conditions economics of the past.<\/p>\r\n
It is also observed that higher is the relationship between GDP per capita value, discounting the taxes, enhance better the quality of life of citizens, making the economic and social dynamics conducive to the country\u2019s development. Furthermore, it is observed that when this relationship decreases and approaches the theoretical unitary value (1), economic crises occur with possible political and social instabilities. As the graph shows, historically, this fact promoted significant changes in society and the economy, being detected in the following periods:<\/p>\r\n
- \r\n
- (a) post-war \u2013 decades from 1940 to 1950 \u2013 fall of the Vargas dictatorship and reinstallation
of democracy;<\/li>\r\n - (b) 1960s \u2013 coup d\u2019\u00e9tat by the Military Regime of 1964;<\/li>\r\n
- (c) 1970s \u2013 economic crisis and intensification of popular repression and implementation of development plans, \u201c\u201d plan and subsequent political opening of the Republic.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n
Thus, actually (2013), simultaneously with the indicators that inform economic growth, the media and the press report a growing movement of illegality in public and private acts, growth of corruption and civil crime. A paradoxical set of elements is observed, which historically do not occur at the same time, inducing the illusory idea of economic growth and access to capital by the population, showing that, in parallel with the mathematical technicality used here, the daily reality of the civilian population validates this paradox.<\/p>\r\n
This situation, without any doubt, will require public bodies to carry out an in-depth analysis and planning of social, economic and tax policies so that that economic and political stability in Brazil over the next few years can be real, since similar phenomena were catalysts for major revolutions in the history humanity, such as the French revolution 1789, the US war of independence and the Minas Gerais Revolt in Brazil \u2013 in the 18th century \u2013, in addition to the Constitutionalist Revolution of 1932 and the 1964 Coup d\u2019Etat \u2013 both in Brazil, in the 20th century.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nEdelcio Roncon<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Valuations and Market Engineer<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
This material was prepared by Eng. Edelcio Teixeira Roncon, who certifies that the opinions contained therein exclusively reflect his personal opinions on the assets and their securities and\/or financial securities and were prepared independently and autonomously.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The information contained in this analysis material is considered true on the date of issuance and comes from public sources considered reliable by the author. The author does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or security of the information.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The author does not undertake that readers\/investors will make a profit, nor will he have any responsibility in case of losses, direct or indirect, as a consequence of the use of this document.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The information contained in this material may not be appropriate for the recipient’s investment profile. Investments involve risks and investors must exercise caution when making their personal decisions and should not substitute their own judgments for those set out in this document at any time or under any circumstances.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The opinions, estimates and projections contained in the material constitute the author’s current analysis on the date it was issued and are subject to change, without prior notice, and may be different or contrary to the opinions expressed by other areas of activity of the author or other analysts related and\/or independent to it, as a consequence of the adoption of different criteria and methodologies.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed to anyone, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior written authorization of the author, and the author is not responsible for actions contrary to the provisions herein by third parties.<\/p>\r\n","protected":false,"raw":"\r\n
Since the Roman Empire era, social leaders have closely monitored the relationship between economic development and social behavior.<\/p>\r\n
Historically, when there is good economic development \u2013 providing a good quality of life for citizens \u2013 society tends to follow current laws and social norms, formal or informal, that govern people\u2019s attitudes, especially with regard to crime behavior. There is an inversely proportional relationship, that is, the greater the economic development, the lower the crime rates and violations of social rules.<\/p>\r\n
Brazil has shown significant economic development in the last fifteen years, considering the measurement of GDP (Gross Domestic Product). However, two other phenomena in parallel due to be analyzed together: population growth \u2013 with an increase of approximately 30% in the period, and the growth of the tax rate in relation to GDP \u2013 with an increase close to 21% in the period. The graph below shows these variations over time, according to IBGE (Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute) data.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
<\/figure>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nAs the graph shows, when deducting taxation from the GDP value, the financial value that citizens have access to \u2013 the difference is collected in the form of taxes \u2013, and which directly interferes with their quality of life, is stagnant in a narrow range since the beginning of the 1980s. In other words, it is the same financial value that the population had access to 30 years ago.<\/p>\r\n
Another aggravating factor is the fact that the population grew during this period, along with the tax burden, not allowing the amount available to citizens to grow at the same rate. By subtracting the financial amount of taxes from the GDP value and dividing the result by the number of inhabitants in the country, it is observed that the per capita value is falling in relation to the 1980s and 1990s, meaning that the country\u2019s people have the same capital available to a 30% larger population. This would be the situation, for example, of a family made up of three people who have to support a fourth person, without growth contributing this forth person in any way and with no prospects for growth in the family budget.<\/p>\r\n
This means that, although GDP has grown in recent years, the population and tax burden have increased faster, meaning that citizens have access to fewer financial resources than 30 years ago, generating stagnation in access to capital in relation to conditions economics of the past.<\/p>\r\n
It is also observed that higher is the relationship between GDP per capita value, discounting the taxes, enhance better the quality of life of citizens, making the economic and social dynamics conducive to the country\u2019s development. Furthermore, it is observed that when this relationship decreases and approaches the theoretical unitary value (1), economic crises occur with possible political and social instabilities. As the graph shows, historically, this fact promoted significant changes in society and the economy, being detected in the following periods:<\/p>\r\n
- \r\n
- (a) post-war \u2013 decades from 1940 to 1950 \u2013 fall of the Vargas dictatorship and reinstallation
of democracy;<\/li>\r\n - (b) 1960s \u2013 coup d\u2019\u00e9tat by the Military Regime of 1964;<\/li>\r\n
- (c) 1970s \u2013 economic crisis and intensification of popular repression and implementation of development plans, \u201c\u201d plan and subsequent political opening of the Republic.<\/li>\r\n<\/ul>\r\n
Thus, actually (2013), simultaneously with the indicators that inform economic growth, the media and the press report a growing movement of illegality in public and private acts, growth of corruption and civil crime. A paradoxical set of elements is observed, which historically do not occur at the same time, inducing the illusory idea of economic growth and access to capital by the population, showing that, in parallel with the mathematical technicality used here, the daily reality of the civilian population validates this paradox.<\/p>\r\n
This situation, without any doubt, will require public bodies to carry out an in-depth analysis and planning of social, economic and tax policies so that that economic and political stability in Brazil over the next few years can be real, since similar phenomena were catalysts for major revolutions in the history humanity, such as the French revolution 1789, the US war of independence and the Minas Gerais Revolt in Brazil \u2013 in the 18th century \u2013, in addition to the Constitutionalist Revolution of 1932 and the 1964 Coup d\u2019Etat \u2013 both in Brazil, in the 20th century.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
\u00a0<\/div>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nEdelcio Roncon<\/h3>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
Valuations and Market Engineer<\/strong><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
This material was prepared by Eng. Edelcio Teixeira Roncon, who certifies that the opinions contained therein exclusively reflect his personal opinions on the assets and their securities and\/or financial securities and were prepared independently and autonomously.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The information contained in this analysis material is considered true on the date of issuance and comes from public sources considered reliable by the author. The author does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or security of the information.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The author does not undertake that readers\/investors will make a profit, nor will he have any responsibility in case of losses, direct or indirect, as a consequence of the use of this document.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The information contained in this material may not be appropriate for the recipient's investment profile. Investments involve risks and investors must exercise caution when making their personal decisions and should not substitute their own judgments for those set out in this document at any time or under any circumstances.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
The opinions, estimates and projections contained in the material constitute the author's current analysis on the date it was issued and are subject to change, without prior notice, and may be different or contrary to the opinions expressed by other areas of activity of the author or other analysts related and\/or independent to it, as a consequence of the adoption of different criteria and methodologies.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n
This material may not be reproduced or redistributed to anyone, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior written authorization of the author, and the author is not responsible for actions contrary to the provisions herein by third parties.<\/p>\r\n"},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Since the time of the Roman Empire, social leaders have closely monitored the relationship between economic development and social behavior.<\/p>\n","protected":false,"raw":"Since the time of the Roman Empire, social leaders have closely monitored the relationship between economic development and social behavior."},"author":2,"featured_media":236,"template":"","cat_blog":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
A dina\u0302mica macroecono\u0302mica, tribut\u00e1ria e populacional \u2013 uma pondera\u00e7\u00e3o sens\u00edvel - ESTE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/blog\/marcoeconomics-taxes-and-population-dynamics-a-sensitive-weighting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A dina\u0302mica macroecono\u0302mica, tribut\u00e1ria e populacional \u2013 uma pondera\u00e7\u00e3o sens\u00edvel - ESTE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Desde a \u00e9poca do imp\u00e9rio romano, os l\u00edderes sociais monitoram com grande afinco a rela\u00e7\u00e3o entre o desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico e o comportamento social.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/blog\/marcoeconomics-taxes-and-population-dynamics-a-sensitive-weighting\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ESTE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/esteadmpy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-10-24T16:56:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/cover-macroeconomia.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"790\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"594\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"6 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/blog\/marcoeconomics-taxes-and-population-dynamics-a-sensitive-weighting\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/blog\/marcoeconomics-taxes-and-population-dynamics-a-sensitive-weighting\/\",\"name\":\"A dina\u0302mica macroecono\u0302mica, tribut\u00e1ria e populacional \u2013 uma pondera\u00e7\u00e3o sens\u00edvel - 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ESTE","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/#website"},"datePublished":"2013-09-18T12:26:47+00:00","dateModified":"2023-10-24T16:56:10+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/blog\/marcoeconomics-taxes-and-population-dynamics-a-sensitive-weighting\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/blog\/marcoeconomics-taxes-and-population-dynamics-a-sensitive-weighting\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/blog\/marcoeconomics-taxes-and-population-dynamics-a-sensitive-weighting\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"In\u00edcio","item":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Blog","item":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/pt\/blog\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"A dina\u0302mica macroecono\u0302mica, tribut\u00e1ria e populacional \u2013 uma pondera\u00e7\u00e3o sens\u00edvel"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/","name":"ESTE","description":"Administraci\u00f3n Consultoria Financiera","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/#organization"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/#organization","name":"ESTE","url":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en","@id":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/andre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/seo-2.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/andre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/seo-2.png","width":696,"height":696,"caption":"ESTE"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/esteadmpy","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/esteadmpy\/"]}]}},"meta":{"_es_post_content":"<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Desde la \u00e9poca del Imperio Romano, los l\u00edderes sociales han seguido de cerca la relaci\u00f3n entre el desarrollo econ\u00f3mico y el comportamiento social.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Hist\u00f3ricamente, cuando hay un buen desarrollo econ\u00f3mico \u2013que proporciona una buena calidad de vida a los ciudadanos\u2013 la sociedad tiende a seguir las leyes y normas sociales vigentes, formales o informales, que rigen las actitudes de las personas, especialmente con respecto a la delincuencia. Existe una relaci\u00f3n inversamente proporcional, es decir, cuanto mayor es el desarrollo econ\u00f3mico, menores son los \u00edndices de criminalidad y violaciones de las reglas sociales.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Brasil ha mostrado un importante desarrollo econ\u00f3mico en los \u00faltimos quince a\u00f1os, considerando la medici\u00f3n del PIB (Producto Interno Bruto). Sin embargo, otros dos fen\u00f3menos en paralelo merecen ser analizados en conjunto: el crecimiento de la poblaci\u00f3n \u2013 con un aumento de aproximadamente el 30% en el per\u00edodo, y el crecimiento de la tasa impositiva en relaci\u00f3n al PIB \u2013 con un aumento cercano al 21% en el per\u00edodo. El siguiente gr\u00e1fico muestra estas variaciones en el tiempo, seg\u00fan datos del IBGE.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:image {\"sizeSlug\":\"large\"} -->\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img class=\"alignnone wp-image-344 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/graph-A-dinamica-macroeconomica-tributaria-e-populacional-es-1024x488.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1024\" height=\"488\" \/><\/figure>\r\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Como muestra el gr\u00e1fico, al deducir los impuestos del valor del PIB, el valor financiero al que tienen acceso los ciudadanos \u2013la diferencia se recauda en forma de impuestos\u2013, y que interfiere directamente con su calidad de vida, se estanca en un rango estrecho ya que principios de los a\u00f1os 1980. Es decir, es el mismo valor financiero al que ten\u00eda acceso la poblaci\u00f3n hace 30 a\u00f1os.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Otro agravante es el hecho de que la poblaci\u00f3n creci\u00f3 durante este per\u00edodo, junto con la carga tributaria, no permitiendo que el monto disponible para los ciudadanos creciera al mismo ritmo. Al restar el monto financiero de los impuestos al valor del PIB y dividir el resultado por el n\u00famero de habitantes del pa\u00eds, se observa que el valor per c\u00e1pita est\u00e1 cayendo en relaci\u00f3n a los a\u00f1os 1980 y 1990, es decir que la poblaci\u00f3n del pa\u00eds tiene el mismo capital disponible para una poblaci\u00f3n un 30% mayor. Esta ser\u00eda la situaci\u00f3n, por ejemplo, de una familia formada por tres personas que tienen que mantener a una cuarta persona, sin que esta contribuya de ninguna manera y sin perspectivas de crecimiento del presupuesto familiar.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Esto significa que, aunque el PIB ha crecido en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, la poblaci\u00f3n y la carga fiscal han aumentado m\u00e1s r\u00e1pidamente, lo que significa que los ciudadanos tienen acceso a menos recursos financieros que hace 30 a\u00f1os, generando un estancamiento en el acceso al capital en relaci\u00f3n a las condiciones econ\u00f3micas del pasado.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Tambi\u00e9n se observa que cuanto mayor sea la relaci\u00f3n entre el PIB per c\u00e1pita, descontada la carga tributaria, mejor ser\u00e1 la calidad de vida de los ciudadanos, torn\u00e1ndose la din\u00e1mica econ\u00f3mica y social propicia para el desarrollo del pa\u00eds. Adem\u00e1s, se observa que cuando esta relaci\u00f3n disminuye y se acerca al valor unitario te\u00f3rico (1), se producen crisis econ\u00f3micas con posibles inestabilidades pol\u00edticas y sociales. Como muestra el gr\u00e1fico, hist\u00f3ricamente este hecho impuls\u00f3 cambios significativos en la sociedad y la econom\u00eda, detect\u00e1ndose en los siguientes periodos:<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:list -->\r\n<ul><!-- wp:list-item -->\r\n<li>(a) posguerra \u2013d\u00e9cadas de 1940 a 1950\u2013 ca\u00edda de la dictadura de Vargas y reinstalaci\u00f3n de la democracia;<\/li>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\r\n<li>(b) D\u00e9cada de 1960: golpe de Estado del R\u00e9gimen Militar de 1964;<\/li>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\r\n<li>c) D\u00e9cada de 1970: crisis econ\u00f3mica e intensificaci\u00f3n de la represi\u00f3n popular y aplicaci\u00f3n de planes de desarrollo, milagro econ\u00f3mico y posterior apertura pol\u00edtica de la Rep\u00fablica.<\/li>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list-item --><\/ul>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>As\u00ed, hoy en d\u00eda, simult\u00e1neamente con los indicadores que informan el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico, los medios y la prensa informan de un creciente movimiento de ilegalidad en actos p\u00fablicos y privados, crecimiento de la corrupci\u00f3n y de la delincuencia civil. Se observa entonces un conjunto parad\u00f3jico de elementos, que hist\u00f3ricamente no se dan al mismo tiempo, induciendo a la idea ilusoria de crecimiento econ\u00f3mico y acceso al capital por parte de la poblaci\u00f3n, mostrando que, en paralelo al tecnicismo matem\u00e1tico aqu\u00ed utilizado, el diario La realidad de la poblaci\u00f3n civil lo valida.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Esta situaci\u00f3n, sin duda, requerir\u00e1 que los organismos p\u00fablicos realicen un profundo an\u00e1lisis y planificaci\u00f3n de las pol\u00edticas sociales, econ\u00f3micas y tributarias para que haya estabilidad econ\u00f3mica y pol\u00edtica en Brasil en los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os, ya que fen\u00f3menos similares fueron catalizadores de grandes revoluciones de la historia de la humanidad, como la Revoluci\u00f3n Francesa, la guerra de independencia de Estados Unidos y la inconfianza de Minas Gerais \u2013en el siglo XVIII\u2013, adem\u00e1s de la Revoluci\u00f3n Constitucionalista de 1932 y el Golpe de Estado de 1964 \u2013ambas en Brasil, en el siglo XX.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"40px\"} -->\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-spacer\" style=\"height: 40px;\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<!-- \/wp:spacer -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Edelcio Ronc\u00f3n<\/h3>\r\n<!-- \/wp:heading -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p><strong>Ingeniero de Valoraciones y Mercados<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Este material fue elaborado por el Ing. Edelcio Teixeira Roncon, quien certifica que las opiniones contenidas en el mismo reflejan exclusivamente sus opiniones personales sobre los activos y sus valores y\/o valores financieros y fueron elaboradas de forma independiente y aut\u00f3noma.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>La informaci\u00f3n contenida en este material de an\u00e1lisis se considera verdadera a la fecha de su emisi\u00f3n y proviene de fuentes p\u00fablicas consideradas confiables por el autor. El autor no garantiza la exactitud, integridad o seguridad de la informaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>El autor no se compromete a que los lectores\/inversores obtengan ganancias, ni tendr\u00e1 ninguna responsabilidad en caso de p\u00e9rdidas, directas o indirectas, como consecuencia del uso de este documento.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>La informaci\u00f3n contenida en este material puede no ser apropiada para el perfil de inversi\u00f3n del destinatario. Las inversiones implican riesgos y los inversores deben tener precauci\u00f3n al tomar sus decisiones personales y no deben sustituir sus propios juicios por los establecidos en este documento en ning\u00fan momento ni bajo ninguna circunstancia.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Las opiniones, estimaciones y proyecciones contenidas en el material constituyen el an\u00e1lisis actual del autor en la fecha de su emisi\u00f3n y est\u00e1n sujetas a cambios, sin previo aviso, y pueden ser diferentes o contrarias a las opiniones expresadas por otras \u00e1reas de actividad del autor o otros analistas afines y\/o independientes del mismo, como consecuencia de la adopci\u00f3n de criterios y metodolog\u00edas diferentes.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Este material no puede ser reproducido ni redistribuido a nadie, total o parcialmente, para ning\u00fan prop\u00f3sito, sin la autorizaci\u00f3n previa por escrito del autor, y el autor no es responsable de acciones contrarias a lo aqu\u00ed dispuesto por parte de terceros.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->","_es_post_excerpt":"Desde la \u00e9poca del Imperio Romano, los l\u00edderes sociales han seguido de cerca la relaci\u00f3n entre el desarrollo econ\u00f3mico y el comportamiento social.","_es_post_title":"Din\u00e1mica macroecon\u00f3mica, fiscal y poblacional del Brasil: una consideraci\u00f3n sensible","_es_post_name":"dinamica-macroeconomica-fiscal-y-poblacional-del-brasil-una-consideracion-sensible","_pt_post_content":"<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Desde a \u00e9poca do imp\u00e9rio romano, os l\u00edderes sociais monitoram com grande afinco a rela\u00e7\u00e3o entre o desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico e o comportamento social.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Historicamente, quando h\u00e1 um bom desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico \u2013 proporcionando boa qualidade de vida para os cidad\u00e3os \u2013 a sociedade tende a seguir as leis vigentes e normas sociais, formais ou informais, que regem as atitudes das pessoas, principalmente no tocante \u00e0 criminalidade. H\u00e1 uma rela\u00e7\u00e3o inversamente proporcional, ou seja, quanto maior o desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico, menor os \u00edndices de criminalidade e transgress\u00e3o \u00e0s regras sociais.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>O Brasil apresentou significativo desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico nos \u00faltimos quinze anos, considerando a mensura\u00e7\u00e3o do PIB (Produto Interno Bruto). Mas, outros dois fen\u00f4menos em paralelo merecem ser analisados conjuntamente: o crescimento populacional \u2013 com eleva\u00e7\u00e3o de 30% no per\u00edodo, aproximadamente, e o crescimento da taxa tribut\u00e1ria em rela\u00e7\u00e3o ao PIB \u2013 com eleva\u00e7\u00e3o pr\u00f3xima aos 21% no per\u00edodo. O gr\u00e1fico abaixo mostra essas varia\u00e7\u00f5es no tempo, conforme dados do IBGE.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:image {\"id\":288,\"sizeSlug\":\"full\",\"linkDestination\":\"none\"} -->\r\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img class=\"wp-image-288\" src=\"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/andre\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/graph-A-dinamica-macroeconomica-tributaria-e-populacional.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/figure>\r\n<!-- \/wp:image -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Conforme demonstra o gr\u00e1fico, ao descontar a tributa\u00e7\u00e3o do valor do PIB, o valor financeiro que os cidad\u00e3os t\u00eam acesso \u2013 a diferen\u00e7a \u00e9 recolhida na forma de impostos \u2013, e que interfere diretamente em sua qualidade de vida, encontra-se estagnado em uma estreita faixa desde o come\u00e7o da d\u00e9cada de 1980. Ou seja, trata-se do mesmo valor financeiro que a popula\u00e7\u00e3o tinha acesso h\u00e1 30 anos.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Outro fator agravante \u00e9 o fato que a popula\u00e7\u00e3o cresceu neste per\u00edodo, juntamente com a carga tribut\u00e1ria, n\u00e3o permitindo que o valor disponibilizado aos cidad\u00e3os crescesse \u00e0 mesma taxa. Ao subtrair o montante financeiro dos impostos do valor do PIB e dividir o resultado pela quantidade de habitantes do pa\u00eds observa-se que o valor per capita est\u00e1 caindo em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s d\u00e9cadas de 1980 e 1990, fazendo com que as pessoas do pa\u00eds tenham o mesmo capital dispon\u00edvel para uma popula\u00e7\u00e3o 30% maior. Seria a situa\u00e7\u00e3o, por exemplo, de uma fam\u00edlia composta por tr\u00eas pessoas que tenha que sustentar uma quarta pessoa, sem que esta contribua de forma nenhuma e sem perspectivas de crescimento do or\u00e7amento familiar.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Isso significa que, embora o PIB tenha crescido nos \u00faltimos anos, a popula\u00e7\u00e3o e a carga tribut\u00e1ria aumentaram mais rapidamente, fazendo com que os cidad\u00e3os tenham acesso a menos recursos financeiros do que h\u00e1 30 anos, gerando estagna\u00e7\u00e3o no acesso ao capital em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s condi\u00e7\u00f5es econ\u00f4micas de outrora.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Observa-se tamb\u00e9m que quanto maior \u00e9 a rela\u00e7\u00e3o entre o PIB per capita, descontando-se a carga tribut\u00e1ria, melhor \u00e9 a qualidade de vida dos cidad\u00e3os fazendo com que as din\u00e2micas econ\u00f4mica e social sejam prop\u00edcias ao desenvolvimento do pa\u00eds. Ademais, observa-se que quando esta rela\u00e7\u00e3o decresce e se aproxima do valor te\u00f3rico unit\u00e1rio (1), ocorrem crises econ\u00f4micas com poss\u00edveis instabilidades pol\u00edticas e sociais. Como mostra o gr\u00e1fico, historicamente, esse fato promoveu mudan\u00e7as significativas na sociedade e na economia, sendo detectado nos seguintes per\u00edodos:<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:list -->\r\n<ul><!-- wp:list-item -->\r\n<li>(a) p\u00f3s-guerra \u2013 d\u00e9cadas de 1940 a 1950 \u2013 queda da ditadura Vargas e reinstala\u00e7\u00e3o da democracia;<\/li>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\r\n<li>(b) d\u00e9cada de 1960 \u2013 golpe de Estado do Regime Militar de 1964;<\/li>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\r\n<li>(c) d\u00e9cada de 1970 \u2013 crise econ\u00f4mica e intensifica\u00e7\u00e3o da repress\u00e3o popular e implementa\u00e7\u00e3o dos planos de desenvolvimento, milagre econ\u00f4mico e posterior abertura pol\u00edtica da Rep\u00fablica.<\/li>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list-item --><\/ul>\r\n<!-- \/wp:list -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Assim, na atualidade, simultaneamente com os indicadores que informam crescimento econ\u00f4mico, os meios de comunica\u00e7\u00e3o e a imprensa noticiam um crescente movimento de ilegalidade nos atos p\u00fablicos e privados, crescimento da corrup\u00e7\u00e3o e da criminalidade civil. Observa-se, ent\u00e3o, um conjunto paradoxal de elementos, que historicamente n\u00e3o ocorrem ao mesmo tempo, induzindo \u00e0 ilus\u00f3ria ideia de crescimento econ\u00f4mico e de acesso ao capital por parte da popula\u00e7\u00e3o, mostrando que, em paralelo com o tecnicismo matem\u00e1tico aqui empregado, a realidade cotidiana da popula\u00e7\u00e3o civil o valida.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Essa situa\u00e7\u00e3o, sem qualquer d\u00favida, exigir\u00e1 dos \u00f3rg\u00e3os p\u00fablicos uma profunda an\u00e1lise e planejamento de pol\u00edticas sociais, econ\u00f4micas e tribut\u00e1rias para que haja estabilidade econ\u00f4mica e pol\u00edtica no Brasil durante os pr\u00f3ximos anos, uma vez que fen\u00f4menos semelhantes foram catalisadores de grandes revolu\u00e7\u00f5es na hist\u00f3ria da humanidade, tais como a revolu\u00e7\u00e3o francesa, a guerra de independ\u00eancia dos EUA e a inconfid\u00eancia mineira \u2013 no s\u00e9culo XVIII \u2013, al\u00e9m da Revolu\u00e7\u00e3o Constitucionalista de 1932 e o Golpe de Estado de 1964 \u2013 ambos no Brasil, no s\u00e9culo XX.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"40px\"} -->\r\n<div class=\"wp-block-spacer\" style=\"height: 40px;\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00a0<\/div>\r\n<!-- \/wp:spacer -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:heading {\"level\":3} -->\r\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Edelcio Roncon<\/h3>\r\n<!-- \/wp:heading -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p><strong>Engenheiro de Avalia\u00e7\u00f5es e de Mercado<\/strong><\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Este material foi preparado pelo Eng. Edelcio Teixeira Roncon, que certifica que as opini\u00f5es nele contidas refletem exclusivamente suas opini\u00f5es pessoais sobre os ativos e seus valores mobili\u00e1rios e\/ou financeiros e foram elaboradas de forma independente e aut\u00f4noma.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>As informa\u00e7\u00f5es contidas neste material de an\u00e1lise s\u00e3o consideradas como verdadeiras na data de sua emiss\u00e3o e s\u00e3o oriundas de fontes p\u00fablicas consideradas confi\u00e1veis pelo autor. O autor n\u00e3o garante a exatid\u00e3o, a plenitude e a seguran\u00e7a das informa\u00e7\u00f5es.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>O autor n\u00e3o se compromete que os leitores \/ investidores obtenham lucro, nem ter\u00e1 qualquer responsabilidade em caso de perdas, diretas ou indiretas, como consequ\u00eancia do uso deste documento.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>As informa\u00e7\u00f5es contidas neste material podem n\u00e3o ser apropriadas para o perfil de investimento do destinat\u00e1rio. Os investimentos envolvem riscos e os investidores devem ter prud\u00eancia ao tomar suas decis\u00f5es pessoais e n\u00e3o devem substituir seus pr\u00f3prios julgamentos por aqueles previstos neste documento em nenhum momento ou circunst\u00e2ncia.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>As opini\u00f5es, estimativas e proje\u00e7\u00f5es contidas no material constituem a atual an\u00e1lise do autor na data em que foi emitido e est\u00e3o sujeitas \u00e0 altera\u00e7\u00e3o, sem aviso pr\u00e9vio, podendo ser diferentes ou contr\u00e1rias \u00e0s opini\u00f5es expressas por outras \u00e1reas de atua\u00e7\u00e3o do autor ou de outros analistas a ele relacionados e\/ou independentes, como consequ\u00eancia da ado\u00e7\u00e3o de crit\u00e9rios e metodologias diferentes.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\r\n\r\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\r\n<p>Este material n\u00e3o pode ser reproduzido ou redistribu\u00eddo a qualquer pessoa, no todo ou em parte, para qualquer que seja o prop\u00f3sito, sem a pr\u00e9via autoriza\u00e7\u00e3o por escrito do autor, e este n\u00e3o se responsabiliza pela atua\u00e7\u00e3o contr\u00e1ria ao aqui disposto por parte de terceiros.<\/p>\r\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->","_pt_post_excerpt":"Desde a \u00e9poca do imp\u00e9rio romano, os l\u00edderes sociais monitoram com grande afinco a rela\u00e7\u00e3o entre o desenvolvimento econ\u00f4mico e o comportamento social.","_pt_post_title":"A dina\u0302mica macroecono\u0302mica, tribut\u00e1ria e populacional \u2013 uma pondera\u00e7\u00e3o sens\u00edvel","_pt_post_name":"a-dinamica-macroeconomica-tributaria-e-populacional-uma-ponderacao-sensivel","edit_language":"en"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog\/234"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/blog"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog\/234\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":368,"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/blog\/234\/revisions\/368"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/236"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"cat_blog","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.este.com.py\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/cat_blog?post=234"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
- (a) post-war \u2013 decades from 1940 to 1950 \u2013 fall of the Vargas dictatorship and reinstallation